惯性发展情境下湖南省能否实现2020年减碳目标?——基于GM(1,1)模型预测

Could Hunan Province Achieve the Goal of Carbon Reduction in 2020 Under the Inertial Scenario?——Based on GM (1,1) Models Forecast

依据IPCC碳排放计算方法,对1995—2014年湖南省碳排放量和碳排放强度进行动态测度。结果表明:研究期内湖南省碳排放强度值持续低于全国平均水平,碳排放总量与行业值均呈现持续增长的趋势,但在2004年前后呈现不同的增长态势,碳排放量主要集中在第二产业,尤其是碳排放强度最高的工业行业,工业单位产值产生的碳排放量显著大于其对国民经济的贡献;灰色GM(1,1)模型预测进一步表明,在碳排放与经济"惯性发展"情景下,湖南省整体、第一产业、第二产业中的工业均能实现2020年碳减排目标,第二产业中的建筑业和第三产业各行业距离碳减排目标实现具有一定差距。

Based on the approach of IPCC, this paper dynamically measured the total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity from 1995 to2014 in Hunan Province. The results showed that, carbon emission intensity in Hunan Province was consistently lower than the national average level,both total carbon emission and industrial carbon emission showed a continuous growth trend, and the carbon emission was mainly concentrated in thesecondary occupations, especially the industry with the highest carbon emission intensity, carbon emissions generated by industrial production were sig-nificantly greater than its contribution to the national economy. Gray GM （1,1） model forecasted that, in the inertia scenario of carbon emissions andeconomic development, taking Hunan Province as a whole, the primary industry, the industrial industry could achieve the 2020 carbon reduction tar-gets, and there existed certain gaps for the construction industry and the third industries to achieve the carbon reduction targets.