基于统计的我国短时交通流预测模型分析

Analysis of Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Model Based on Statistics in China

短时交通流量预测作为交通控制管理、交通诱导提供技术支持之一,已经成为交通工程的研究热点。为了研究近年来预测模型的现状,在中国知网数据库高级检索功能中以"篇名:短时交通并含预测"和"发表时间:2000-2016"为条件进行检索,共检索到133篇核心期刊。通过对期刊的分类统计,就当前国内常用的预测模型的原理及作用作简单介绍,并根据现有各模型的优缺点和使用范围,对未来的发展趋势做初步探讨。

Short-term traffic forecasting which is one of the key technologies of intelligent traffic control management and traffic guidance, has become a hot topic in the field of traffic engineering. In order to study the status quo of the forecasting model in recent years, a total of 133 code journals were retrieved in the advanced search function of the China Knowledge Infrastructure database, which was searched by ＂title： Short-term traffic and forecast＂ and ＂published time： 2000-2016＂. Based on the classification statistics of journals, this article made a briefly introduction on the principle and function of the current forecasting domestic forecasting models. Future, the future development trend also been preliminary discussed based on current advantages, disadvantages and application range of each model.