飞机平行航路侧向碰撞风险预测仿真

Prediction and simulation of aircraft lateral collision risk on parallel route

针对基于Reich模型的平行航路侧向间隔碰撞风险评估过程中,机型尺寸与巡航速度对评估精度产生影响这一问题,引入改进后的椭柱型模型对基于甚高频全向信标(VOR)导航台的平行航路下飞行器侧向碰撞风险进行仿真建模分析。首先确定影响空域安全性评估的各参数间的关系,再根据飞机侧向偏航距离的分布规律,应用新模型分析得出碰撞风险的发生概率。采用实际飞行数据进行仿真实验,在给定航路距离、机身相对距离、偏航距离的情况下,对VOR导航下两机侧向碰撞率分析得出:当机身长度提高57.1%时,碰撞风险提高了47.7%;而当巡航速度提高4.8%时,碰撞风险增加了7.6%。实验证明利用该方法能够分析航空器尺寸及航行速度对航路碰撞风险的具体影响,进而可在满足安全目标水平条件下缩小最小安全间距,提高空域利用率。

During the procedure of lateral collision risk assessment on parallel route based on Reich mode, the assessment accuracy is influenced by model size and the cruise speed of aircraft. In order to improve the assessment accuracy,an improved elliptical cylinder model was proposed to execute the modeling and simulation analysis about the collision risk for parallel route which equipped with VOR（ Very High Frequency Omni bearing Range） navigation station. Firstly, the relationship between the various parameters affecting the airspace safety assessment was determined, then according to the distribution law of the lateral distance, a new collision risk model was applied for probability analysis of collision risk. Real flight data was adopted in simulation experiments, and under a given route distance, relative distance between aircrafts and deviation, the lateral collision risk based on VOR navigation was analyzed： the collision risk increases by 47. 7% when the body length increase by 57. 1% and the collision risk increases by 7. 6% while the cruise speed increases by 4. 8%.Experiments show that the method can be used to analyze the impact of aircraft size and navigation speed on the collision risk,and reduce the minimum safety distance so that improve the utilization rate of space.