滇中城市群城际铁路网客流预测

Passenger Flow Forecast of Intercity Railway Network in Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration

基于对滇中城际铁路网客流的现状分析,将城市群内交通划分为区域内交流、对外交流、过境客流三部分,以区域内交流为重点,将客流以不同的交通方式划分为公路客流、铁路客流与航空客流进行分析。采用改进的四阶段交通需求预测理论,以实际客流数据为基础得到2015年不同交通方式与全方式的客流OD表。运用弗雷特法(Frator method)计算未来各规划年不同交通方式与全方式居民出行城际客流和旅游客流分布。建立滇中城市群各城际通道方式划分Logit模型,得到滇中城市群城际铁路客流OD表,成功得到未来各规划年的客运交通分布预测、客运交通方式预测与主要通道客运交通预测。

Based on the analyses of the passenger flow in the intercity railway network in central Yunnan,the urban agglomeration traffic is divided into three parts： intra-regional traffic,external traffic and transit passenger flow. Focusing on intra-regional traffic,passengers flow is classified into road flow,rail flow and flight flow based on the mode of transportation to conduct the analysis. The improved theory of four-step forecasting method is adopted. And based on the actual data of passenger flow,the OD table of different modes of transportation and all modes in 2015 are prepared. The Frator method is used to calculate intercity passenger flow and tourist flow distribution with different modes of transportation and all modes in the planning years. The Logit model of intercity corridor model is established for the urban cluster in central Yunnan and the intercity rail passenger flow OD table of the urban agglomeration of Yunnan is obtained. The forecast of passenger traffic distribution,passenger traffic modes and passenger traffic of main corridors for each planning year is fulfilled.