重庆市产业结构优化减排效应研究

Emission Reduction Effect in Industrial Structure Optimization in Chongqing

经济增长通过技术效应、规模效应以及结构效应影响环境质量。本文从结构效应出发,利用1997—2014年重庆市时间序列数据,通过协整检验及误差修正模型分析了重庆市产业结构高度化和产业结构合理化对污染排放的影响效应。研究结果显示:(1)产业结构高度化加剧了污染排放,产业结构合理化则有利于减少污染排放;(2)短期内,误差修正机制会弱化环境政策的实施效果。因此,一方面重庆市要继续推进产业结构优化升级,另一方面要保持各项环保政策实施的稳定性和长效性。

Economic growth affects environmental quality through technology effects, scale effects and structural effects. This paper starts from the structural effects by using 1997-2014 Chongqing City Time series data, by co-integration test and error correction model to analyze the impact of industrial structure supererogation and industrial structure rationalization in Chongqing on the pollution emis-sion. The research results show that industrial structure supererogation aggravated pollution emission, but rationalization of industrial structure is conducive to reducing emissions, and that in the short-term, error correction opportunity would weaken the effect of the im-plementation of environmental policies. Therefore, on the one hand,Chongqing should continue to promote the optimization and upgra-ding of industrial structure, on the other hand, Chongqing should maintain the stability and long-term nature of environmental protection policy implementation.