我国雾霾污染影响因素的空间效应——基于PM_(2.5)的实证分析

Empirical Study on the Spatial Effect of China's Haze Pollution——Influence Factors Based on PM_(2.5)

使用2014年我国31省(市、区)数据,采用空间计量经济学方法,对我国PM_(2.5)的影响因素进行分析,并试图考查EKC假说。全局Moran's I指数表明我国PM_(2.5)存在空间正自相关性,局部Moran's I指数显示我国雾霾污染存在较强的空间溢出效应。空间滞后模型显示,我国雾霾污染与经济增长之间不存在EKC假说,雾霾污染与城镇化之间存在倒U型曲线,支持EKC假说。第二产业比重与雾霾污染呈同方向变动。降雨量的提高会降低PM_(2.5),从而减缓雾霾污染问题。最后,提出地方政府间要加强环境领域的合作,区域联动,加强环境规制,推进新型城镇化进程,优化产业结构等建议。

In this article, according to spatial econometrics, we examine the influence factors of China＇s PM2.5 and the EKC hypothesis by means of the cross-section data of the 31 provinces, towns, municipalities. The global Moran＇s I shows that there is spatial positive autocorrelation. In addition, the local Moran＇s I shows that haze pollution has strong spatial spillover effects in China. Spatial lag model reveals that there is not EKC hypothesis between haze pollution and economic growth in China. There is an inverted U-shaped curve between urbanization and haze pollution which supports the EKC hypothesis. Secondary industry proportion and haze pollution change in the same direction. The increase of rainfall can reduce PMzs, slowing down haze pollution problem. In conclusion, we put forward some suggestions that the local government should strengthen cooperation in the field of environment, intensify region linkage, enhance environmental regulation, promote the new type of urbanization process, optimize the industrial structure etc.