全球视角下中国隐含能贸易的核算和结构分解分析

Accounting and Structure Decomposition Analysis of the China's Embodied Energy Trade: Based on Global Perspective

利用世界投入产出表和能源消费量相关数据,系统核算了中国1995—2009年的隐含能贸易量,并利用SDA方法对隐含能贸易量的变化进行了结构分解。实证结果如下:(1)1995—2009年,中国存在隐含能净出口,并且存在部门上的差异、进口来源地和出口目的地的差异;中国从韩国的隐含能进口量最大;中国向美国的隐含能出口量最大。(2)在1995—2009年,节能技术的提高会降低中国隐含能进出口量,但是列昂惕夫逆矩阵的变化和产品贸易量的变化会引起中国隐含能进出口量的增加,并且产品贸易量的变化是引起中国隐含能贸易量变化的主要原因。因此中国需要注意调整产业结构,加强与美国等国家的双边节能贸易的合作,同时注意节能技术变化、产业关联变化以及贸易量变化对中国隐含能贸易量变化的不同影响。

This paper uses the world input-output tables and energy consumption data to account and analyze the structure decomposition of the China＇s embodied energy trade in 1995-2009. The empirical results are as follows： （1） China has embodied energy net exports, and there are differences on the sector, import source and export destination in 1995-2009; South Korea is largest whose embodied energy imports from China; the United States is the largest in China＇ export destination. （2） In 1995-2009, the energy-saving technologies to improve energy will reduce China＇s embodied energy import and export volume, but the change Leontief inverse matrix changes and product causes an increase, and changes in product trade in China is caused mainly due to changes in China＇s embodied energy trade. Therefore, China needs to adjust the industrial structure, strengthen cooperation with the United States and other countries, bilateral trade in energy-efficient, while paying attention to different effects of energy-saving technological change, trade volume change, and relate industry change of the China＇s embodied energy trade.