工业化与城镇化对能源强度的影响研究——基于新疆面板数据的FGLS和SYS-GMM的实证分析

Research on the Influence of Industrialization and Urbanization on Energy Intensity: An Empirical Analysis of FGLS and SYS-GMM Based on Xinjiang Panel Data

工业化与城镇化是节能降耗的关键。文章利用2004—2013年新疆15个地州市面板数据,建立静态面板及动态面板模型,实证分析了工业化、城镇化对能源强度的影响。结果显示:(1)能源强度存在显著的累积效应与路径依赖,工业化水平提升有助于降低能源利用强度,在天山北部地区尤为显著;(2)城镇化进程中基础设施、交通运输的建设投入在短期内更多地体现为能源消耗规模迅速扩大,长期可能存在的集聚效应进而降低单位能耗的机制尚未发挥;(3)通过长期城镇化发展形成的集聚效应促进经济发展水平提升,进而降低能源强度的路径存在,且作用效果大于通过工业化发展促进经济水平提升进而降低能源强度这一路径。在此基础上,提出相应的建议。

Industrialization and urbanization are the key to energy saving. This article uses the panel data of 15 cross-section units in Xinjiang from 2004 to 2013 to establish static and dynamic panel model, and analyzes the influence of industrialization and urbanization on energy intensity. The results show that, firstly, energy intensity has a significant cumulative effect and path dependence. Increased level of industrialization helps to reduce energy intensity, especially in the northern part of Tianshan Mountains. Secondly, frastruc^re or transportation construction in the process of urbanization would be reflected in more rapid expansion of energy consumption scale in the short run. The possible mechanism of reducing energy consumption through the agglomeration effect has not yet been played. Finally, the path that through the agglomeration effect in the process of urbanization to promote the level of economic development and thus reduce the energy intensity exists, and the effect is greater than the path that through the industrial development to promote the level of economic development and thus reduce the energy intensity. On this basis, the article puts forward the corresponding suggestions.