突发事件下城市供水系统需求的综合评价研究——基于系统弹性的分析视角

Research on the Comprehensive Evaluation Method for System Requirement of Municipal Water Supply under Emergency: Based on Analysis Perspective of System Resilience

为实现突发事件应急恢复的系统弹性,有效度量和评价城市供水系统的需求重要度,提出了考虑加权距离信息的初始直接需求度量模型,给出了一个基于改进DANP模型和熵权法的考虑主客观权重的应急决策系统需求重要度综合评价方法,并针对咸潮情景下供水系统需求重要度评价指标体系展开实证研究。研究结果表明,改进的DANP模型能够克服以往研究的问题和不足,反映了城市供水系统初始应急需求与总需求的客观化建模过程,而且在影响关系判别过程中充分考虑了系统元素集的自我影响关系和影响性质,保证了评价决策的排序方案更符合实际,为城市供水系统应急恢复的需求重要度评价决策提供新思路。

In order to improve system resilience under emergency recovery, measure and evaluate the requirement importance of water supply system in urban effectively, the measure modeling of initial directed requirement considered with weights-distance information is proposed. A comprehensive evaluation method is given for system requirement importance under emergency decision that are combined subjective with objective weights based on revised DANP modeling and entropy right method, and the model was proved to be rational and scientific by the empirical research which combines with evaluation index system of requirement importance of water system under salt tide scenario. The results show that, the revised DANP model can overcome problems and weakness of traditional methods, reflects the modelling process objectively for measure of initial and total requirement of water supply system systematically, but also self-influence relation and impact properties of each cluster is considered when analyzing the influence relation among system clusters, guarantee the sort results of evaluation decision in a more practical way, evaluate requirement importance to supply new ideas for municipal water supply system under emergency recovery.