清代山西地区疫灾时空分布研究

Temporal-spatial distribution of epidemic disasters of Shanxi in the Qing Dynasty

疫灾是人类的顶级灾害,历史疫灾研究能为未来疫病防控提供借鉴。文中运用疫灾计量指标和GIS空间分析方法,探讨了清代(1644-1911)山西地区的疫灾地理规律。结果表明:1)清代山西地区的疫灾频度为34.33%,疫灾相当频繁;夏秋季节是疫灾多发季节,说明高温高湿环境有利于疫病的流行;朝代鼎革的清初期和清末期疫灾相对频繁,社会稳定的清中期疫灾相对稀少,说明社会动乱也有利于疫灾的发生。2)清代山西地区的疫灾分布具有明显的"洼地效应":府级尺度上具有高低相间的南北分异特征,盆地地区为疫灾强度高值区,山岭地区为疫灾强度低值区;区域尺度上具有由南向北的梯度递减特征,晋南高于晋中,晋中高于晋北,晋北高于口外。3)清代山西地区的疫灾格局受地理格局和人口格局的双重制约;人口密度是疫灾的奠基石,人口流动是疫灾的扩散力,自然灾害是疫灾的诱发器;与其它自然灾害相比,疫灾分布变迁更能反映区域开发时序,更能体现人地关系演进。

Epidemic is one of the disasters that causes the most serious damage to human beings. It will provide reference for preventing and controlling sudden public health events in the future to discuss the temporal - spatial distribution of epidemic disasters. The geographical regularity of epidemic disasters in Qing Dynasty of this area has been discussed by adopting the epidemic index and spatial analysis methods in GIS. The results show that： 1 ） The epidemic frequency was rather high at 34.33%. The prevalence of epidemic disasters seemed more preferable in summer and autumn showing that environment with high percentage of moisture was helpful for the it＇s prevalence. The epidemic disasters happened more frequently in the initial and final stage of Qing Dynasty during the regime change of dynasties, while disasters happening in the middle stage were less when the society was more stable. This illustrates that social disturbance is also helpful for the prevalence of epidemic disasters. 2） Its distribution showed an evident depression effect. That means, on the mansion scale, intensity of epidemic disas- ters in the basin area was high while that in mountainous area was low showing that epidemic disasters were dis- tributed southwards and northwards respectively. On the regional scale, it decreased gradually north to south meaning the intensity value of epidemic disasters in the south was higher than that in the midland. 3 ） The distri- bution of epidemic disasters was restricted both by geographical and population patterns. Population density was the foundation of epidemic disasters, and natural disasters and population flow were the inducing force and diffu- sion force of epidemic disasters respectively. Compared to natural disasters, transition of distribution of epidemic disasters reflected the time sequence of regional development, and embodyed the proceeding of man - land relationship.