文水县气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响

Effects of climate change on winter wheat yield in Wenshui County

根据文水县1990-2014年逐月的气温、降水量、蒸发量、日照时数等气候数据和冬小麦产量资料,利用回归分析、数学统计和Thornthwaite Memoriae模型,定量分析各气候要素对冬小麦产量的影响,并对未来气候变化情形下的冬小麦产量进行预测。研究结果表明:近25年来文水县冬小麦单产整体呈现下降趋势,但其气候产量却呈上升趋势;气温上升有利于冬小麦产量的提高,而极端低温、过多的降水量和蒸发量对冬小麦生产不利;未来"暖湿型"和"冷湿型"气候有利于提高冬小麦的产量,"暖干型"和"冷干型"气候均不利于冬小麦产量的提升。

According to the climate data of monthly temperature, precipitation, evaporation, sunshine duration and the yield data of winter wheat from 1990 to 2014 in Wenshui County, we made a quantitative analysis on the influence of climatic factors on the yield of winter wheat and predicted the yield of winter wheat under the circum- stance of future climate change by using regression analysis, mathematical statistics and Thornthwaite Memoriae model. The results showed that in the past 25 years, the yield of winter wheat in Wenshui County decreased, but the climatic yield was on the rise; the rise of temperature was conducive to the increase of the yield of winter wheat, and extreme low temperature, too much precipitation and evaporation was unfavorable to the production of winter wheat. The study shows that： ＂warm and wet＂ and ＂cold and wet＂ climate type are conducive to the increase of the yield of winter wheat, ＂warm and dry＂ and ＂cold and dry＂ climate type are unfavorable to the yield of winter wheat.