气候变化对黄淮海平原粮食生产力影响的实证研究

The empirical study on impacts of climate changes on grain productivity in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain

作为中国重要的粮食生产基地,黄淮海平原粮食生产在气候变暖背景下将可能面临着较大的挑战。由此,文中依托于经济-气候新生产函数模型,运用空间计量经济学模型实证分析气候变化对黄淮海平原玉米和小麦生产力的影响。研究结论表明:温度对小麦单产的影响呈现了显著的"倒U型"非线性关系,但对玉米单产却未产生显著的非线性影响;降雨对玉米和小麦单产都产生了显著的"倒U型"的非线性影响;在气候变化背景下,化肥投入、机械投入与技术进步对黄淮海平原玉米和小麦生产力有显著的正向影响,在一定程度上减缓气候变化的不利影响。

As the important grain production region in China, the Huang - Huai - Hai plain faces great challenges on grain productivity under climate warming. Therefore, this research would employ spatial econometric model to empirically investigate impacts of climate change on maize and wheat productivity in the Huang - Huai - Hal plain. The main results of this study show that there exists a significant inverted - U relationship between temperature and wheat yield; the linkups between precipitation and maize yield and wheat yield are also an inverted - U relationship at significant level, respectively; fertilizer input, mechanical input and technology progress have significant and positive impacts on maize yield and wheat yield, respectively under climate changes.