开放经济下中国货币政策规则的选择

China's Monetary Policy Rule in an Open Economy

本文通过构建开放经济下的宏观经济模型,探讨不同外生冲击对宏观经济变量影响的理论传导机制,进一步模拟得出不同外生冲击下两种利率规则的实施效果及福利损失。研究结果表明,对于名义汇率贬值率和贸易条件,钉住CPI通胀和产出缺口的利率规则在不同冲击下的稳定效果都好于钉住国内通胀和产出缺口的利率规则。但钉住国内通胀和产出缺口的利率规则在不同冲击下的福利损失都小于钉住CPI通胀和产出缺口的利率规则。

This paper constructs an NOEM to study the transmission mechanism of different exogenous shocks on macro vari- ables, furthermore, to provide a comparison of the equilibrium properties and welfare losses associated with two Taylor rules under different exogenous shocks. It shows that the nominal exchange rate and the terms of trade are more stable under the in- terest rate rule of targeting CPI inflation and output gap（FCIT） than targeting domestic inflation and output gap（FDIT）. But the welfare loss is less under FDIT.