城镇化进程中流动人口生育意愿的城市差异

The Diversities of Migrants' Fertility Intention Among the Cities during the Urbanization

城镇化对降低人口生育意愿起着重要作用。中国正处于低生育水平时期,人口的生育意愿突出地表现为是否生育二孩。对全国流动人口监测数据的分析发现:城镇化降低人口的生育意愿主要表现在城镇化过程中流动人口生育意愿的下降;更重要的是,城市规模不同,其流入人口生育意愿的降低程度亦存在差异;流入人口的户籍性质、定居意愿和生育服务可获得性是导致这种差异的主要原因,也就是说,流入人口的传统生育文化、社会融合程度和城市的计划生育公共服务供给水平是导致不同规模等级城市间生育意愿差异的主要社会因素。中国的城镇化具有流动人口倾向于向大城市聚集的特征,这进一步加剧了流动人口生育意愿的降低速度。因此,不能忽视城镇化路径选择对中国未来人口发展趋势的影响。

Urbanization is a key factor society. The changes of the migrants＇ fertility in lowering the fertility intention in modern intention show the dynamic of urbanization in lowering the fertility intention. Basic on the migrants＇ data in China, it has been found that migrants＇ fertility intention is different among the different scale cities, the bigger the city is, the lower migrants＇ fertility intention will be maintained. The dynamics of urbanization in lowering fertility intention exist in the difference among the cities besides the difference between the urban and rural region. The hukou registers, settlement intention and fertility public service supplying are the factors exiting in different cities, which leads to the diversities among the different sized cities.