中国城镇居民信息消费的空间相关性与影响因素分析——基于动态空间杜宾面板模型的实证研究

Information Consumption of Urban Chinese Residents:An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model

【目的】信息消费已成为日益增长的消费热点,为了促进城镇居民的信息消费水平,对其影响因素进行研究。【方法】分析中国城镇居民信息消费的发展状况及空间相关性,以及当期信息消费会受到的三种内、外部影响,构建相应的理论模型,进一步基于动态空间杜宾模型进行实证研究。【结果】当期信息消费支出对相邻地区并没有产生空间溢出效应,信息消费表现出耐用性特征,而居民信息消费会受相邻地区居民信息消费习惯的影响;影响因素中物价和收入的提升,短期内会促使本地居民信息消费支出增加;而受教育水平和信息基础设施水平的提升,短期内会对相邻地区产生显著的正向空间溢出效应;长期效应中,只有物价和收入对本地居民信息消费支出有影响。【局限】由于数据的可获得性,选用物价指数、受教育水平、信息基础设施、网民人数、收入等5个因素进行分析,未考虑的因素可能会对分析结果产生影响。【结论】在研究居民消费的影响因素时,必须考虑空间效应的各种影响,否则估计结果可能是有偏的。

[Objective] This paper analyzes the factors influencing information consumption, aiming to further promote such activities among urban Chinese residents. [Methods] First, we studied the development condition, spatial correlation and three types of internal and external influencing factors. Then, we constructed the corresponding Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model and conducted an empirical study. [Results] The information consumption had the durable features but posed no spillover effects. The urban residents＇ consumption could also affect the adjoining region residents＇ behaviors. The increasing of price and income promoted the information consumption in short tenn. The improvement of education and information infrastructure posed spatial spillover effects to adjoining residents. In the long term, only the price and income had impacts on local residents. [Limitations] We only examined the impacts of the price, education level, information infrastructure, number of cyber citizen, and income. Other factors might also affect the results. [Conclusions] We must study the residents＇ information consumption behaviors based on all spatial spillovers to avoid biased results.