基于SWAP平台的新疆中尺度对流系统判识及应用

Early Warning Technology and Application of Short-term Heavy Rainfall in Xinjiang Based on SWAP

利用近10 a FY-2系列红外云图资料、MICAPS常规资料、新疆105个基本气象观测站逐小时降水量资料,参考国内外中尺度对流系统(MCS)标准,给出了新疆区域MCS判识标准。统计分析新疆35次短时强降水过程的MCS空间分布及参数演变特征,总结新疆不同区域MCS预警阈值。基于卫星天气应用平台(SWAP)平台追踪检验短时强降水对应MCS特征参数变化,表明新疆MCS的TBB预警阈值下限偏低4℃,上限偏高2~4℃;天山山区、南疆偏西地区的TBB梯度为0.3℃·km^(-1),北疆偏西、巴州北部与我国中东部一致。短时强降水发生在引导气流方向靠近暖区一侧的冷云盖边缘TBB梯度最大处,TBB梯度图对云团发展变化表现更清楚。基于SWAP平台定位追踪对流云团对下游可能发生的强降水有2~6 h预警时效,且30 min外推预报与实况基本一致,对新疆强降水短临预报预警有一定的指示意义。

Based on infrared cloud image data of FY-2 series nearly 10 years and MICAPS data,hourly precipitation data of 105 basic synoptic stations, as well as the international and domesticstandards of mesoscale convective system（MCS） , the corresponding MCS standards of Xinjiang wasgiven in this study. Meanwhile, the level thresholds of TBB over different part of Xinjiang wereanalyzed on the basis of spacial distribution of MCS and the changing characteristics of relevantparameters during 35 short-time-range heavy rainfall in Xinjiang traced by SWAP. It is showed thatfour level thresholds of TBB in Xinjiang was2℃ to4℃ lower than the counterpart in the MiddleEast of China. The low level of warning threshold was less than4℃, and high level was greater than2℃- to4℃; TBB gradient was 0.3℃·km-1in Tianshan Mountains and the west region of southernXinjiang, which is consistent with center China. Tracking the convective cloud cluster by SWAPplatform has 2-6h warning efficiency before the occurrence of possible heavy rain in the down flow,extrapolation forecast in 30 min is almost the same with the truth, which thus has some instructionsignificance in weather nowcasting in Xinjiang.