基于灰色系统模型的棉铃虫成虫预测

Prediction for Helicoverpa armigera Adult Based on a Grey System Model

应用GM(1,1)模型,根据2004—2011年乌苏市棉铃虫二代成虫的数量建立了低精度的灰色模型,建立残差的GM(1,1)模型后,再进行模型修正并检验,小误差概率p=1>0.95,后验差C=0.3197<0.35,此模型符合一级标准,精度较高,相对残差较小。

Using a grey system model, we constructeda lower veracity grey model based on thesecond generation Helicoverpa armigera adult moth in Wusu city during the period of 2004-2011.After constructinga residual grey system model, another corrected model would be built andvalidated. The minor error probability p =1〉0.95, the after-test residue C=0.3197〈0.35, the modelaccords with the first level standard with higher veracity and lower residue.