2003年以来我国国有建设用地供应变动及影响因素分析

Analysis on the Supply Change and Influential Factors of the State-owned Construction Land Supplied in China Since 2003

基于统计数据,采用数理统计和灰色关联分析方法,探讨了2003年以来我国国有建设用地供应的变化特征与影响因素。结果表明:(1)各类型建设用地供应量存在明显差距,工矿仓储用地、住宅用地、交通运输用地是供应的主要类型,交通运输用地、水域及水利设施用地的供应量增速最快,二者连同工矿仓储用地成为建设用地供应规模扩大的重要载体;(2)建设用地供应具有明显的波动性,2009~2014年间较2003~2008年明显,水域及水利设施用地、交通运输用地的波动性明显大于其他地类;(3)建设用地供应可划分为3个阶段,2004~2008年为波动增长期,2009~2013年为快速增长期,2014年以来则进入调整期;(4)经济发展、生态、交通及水利建设是影响建设用地供应的重要因素,城镇化的作用被掩盖,居住条件改善的作用有待提高。

Based on statistical data, this paper discusses the change characteristics of supply and influential factors of state-owned construction land supplied in China since 2003 by using the method of mathematical statistics and grey relational analysis. The result shows that： （1） There are distinct differences among the supplied quantity of different types of construction land, and land for industrial and mining warehousing, residence and transportation are main types of supplied land. The growth rate of supplied quantity of land for transportation, water area and water conservancy facilities is the fastest, which are the main carriers for the expansion of the supplied construction land together with land for industrial and mining warehousing; （2） The supplied construction land has significant volatility, more apparent in 2009-2014 than 2003-2008. The volatility of land for transportation, water area and water conservancy facilities is more significant than other types of land; （3） Construction land may be divided into three stages： stage of volatile increase in 2004-2008, stage of rapid increase in 2009-2013 and stage of adjustment since 2014; （4） Economic development, ecology, transportation and water conservancy construction are key factors to the supply of construction land. The contribution of urbanization is covered up and the influence of improvement of living conditions should be strengthened.