从宏观经济形势看货币政策与利率长期趋势

Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates

经济增速在未来面临下行压力。消费在汽车消费热潮后将处于低位,投资部门增速整体下滑。金融资产扩张高于实体经济与社会融资增速,金融风险上升。货币政策正在转向,货币收缩、金融去杠杆可能导致短期金融风险暴露,加剧金融风险,考验政策定力。历史经验表明,我国基准利率、货币增速最主要决定因素是经济增长,其次是通胀,资产价格与汇率关注度相对较低。

Economic growth is likely to face more downward pressure in the near term. With the end of the automotive boom, consumption will hold at relatively low levels while investment growth slows. The expansion of financial assets is outpacing growth in the real economy, and financial risks are rising. Monetary policy is at a turning point marked by tighter liquidity and financial deleveraging. This in turn could exacerbate financial risk and pose fresh challenges to monetary policymakers. Historical experience shows that China＇s benchmark interest rates and monetary growth are largely determined by economic growth, while inflation, asset prices and the exchange rate play less important roles.