基于EMD的我国医疗保健费用增长模式分析

Analysis of Growth Pattern of Medical Care Expenditure in China Based on EMD

目的:使用EMD分析法对我国医疗保健费用零售价格增长变化规律进行分析,为研究医疗费用增长提供理论依据。方法:提取2011年4月-2016年7月国家统计年鉴中中西药品及医疗保健用品类商品零售价格指数数据,运用描述性分析、EMD法对序列进行分析。结果:该时间序列有效分解出了5个IMF和RES。波动周期及方差贡献率分别为IMF1(3.41月,22.25%)、IMF2(5.31月,13.61%)、IMF3(10.06月,10.22%)、IMF4(21.3月,11.03%)、IMF5(32.4个月,5.68%)、RES(37.12%),高频分量贡献度29.67%,低频分量贡献度36.47%,自然增长33.86%。结论:我国医疗保健费用价格长期处于增速增长状态,价格增长波动存在明显的周期性,随机事件影响、国家重大政策及自然增长三方对价格增长影响较为接近,但是国家政策影响最大。

Objective： Using the EMD analysis method to analyze the retail price growth trend of health care costs in our country, and provide a theoretical basis for the growth of medical expenses. Methods： TCM and western medicines and health care products commodity retail price index data （2011.4-2016.7） were extracted from statistical yearbook of Chinese , descriptive anal- ysis and EMD methods were used to explore the data. Results： We successfully extracted five IMFs and one RES from the original time series. The fluctuation cycles and variance contribution rates for each IMF and RES are IMF1 （ 3.41 months, 22.25% ） , IMF2 （5.31 months, 13.61%）, IMF3（10.6 month, 10.22%）, IMF4（21.3 months, 11.03%）, IMF5 （32.4 months,5.68%）, RES （37.12%） respectively. The contribution of high frequency component is 29.67%, the contribution of low frequency component is 36.47%, and the natural growth rate is 33.86%. Conclusion： The health care costs rose at a high speed for a long time in China. The price growth volatility has obvious periodicity. The impact of stochastic events, major policies of the state and the natural growth＇ s contribution for prices growth is closer, but major policies of the state is most important.