基于VIKOR扩展法的黄河冰凌灾害风险评估模型

Risk Assessment of Ice Disaster in the Yellow River Based on Extended VIKOR Method

为提高黄河冰凌灾害风险评估的合理性和准确性,提出了一种基于VIKOR扩展法的评估方法,并将其应用到黄河宁蒙河段的巴彦高勒—三湖河口、三湖河口—昭君坟和昭君坟—头道拐3个分河段的冰坝灾害风险评估中。依据传统多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)的基本思路,结合区间灰数的运算法则,计算各时间段各分河段的评价值,用动态区间灰数加权平均算子进行集成,得到各分河段的整体评价值,最后建立可能度矩阵,利用排序公式对各个分河段发生卡冰结坝的可能性进行排序。结果表明,昭君坟—头道拐河段最易发生卡冰结坝,巴彦高勒—三湖河口河段、三湖河口—昭君坟河段次之。该结果可为黄河宁蒙河段的防凌防汛提供借鉴。

In order to improve the rationality and accuracy of the risk assessment on the ice disaster on the Yellow River, an evaluation method based on extended VIKOR method was proposed, and this method was applied to the risk assessment of ice dam disaster at three reaches of the Yellow River from Bayangol to Sanhuhekou, from Sanhuhekou to Zhaojunfen and from Zhaojunfen to Toudaoguaiin. VIKOR method is a multi-criteria optimization and compromise solution method, according to the basic idea of the traditional multi-cri- teria optimization and compromise solution method, and integrating the operations of interval grey numbers, the evaluation values of each reach at different periods were firstly calculated, then, the total evaluation values of each reach in interval grey numbers were ob- tained by the introduction of dynamic interval grey numbers weighted average operator. Finally, possible degree matrix for the interval grey number was established, the possibility of ice dam caused by ice flood at each reach was ranked by sorting formulas. The results show that the possibility of ice dam at the reach from Zhaojunfen to Toudaoguai is highest. Then, the possibility of ice dam at the reach from Bayangol to Sanhuhekou is higher than the possibility of ice dam at the reach from Sanhuhekou to Zhaojunfen. The sequencing re- sult can provide a reference for ice flood control of the reach from Ningxia to Inner Mongolia on the main Yellow River.