我国城镇化群体性冲突事件的动力学仿真及其化解机制研究

The Dynamics Simulation and Resolution Mechanism of the Group Conflict in Urbanization Process

基于系统动力学提出城镇化群体性冲突事件的基本分析框架,结合城镇化群体冲突的特征,从政府、公众和其他相关方三方面分析了城镇化群体性冲突事件产生的因果关系,提出了城镇化群体性冲突事件影响因子体系,建立了城镇化群体性冲突事件的系统流图和动力学仿真模型。通过拟合不同层面影响因子对城镇化群体性冲突事件产生的影响,分析了群体性冲突动力系统中各影响因子的实际作用程度,并利用Vensim PLE软件对模型进行仿真模拟,验证了模型的有效性与实用性。结果表明,政府因素是导致城镇化群体性冲突事件的重要因素,而公众及其他相关因素对城镇化群体性冲突事件产生的影响相对较弱,并在此基础上提出缓解我国城镇化群体性冲突事件的对策建议。

On the basis of the conflict management and the systems thinking theories, this study constructs an analysis framework of urbanization group conflict from the perspective of system dynamics. By combining with the features of urbanization group conflict, the causal relations are analyzed from three points ： the government factor, the public factor, and other factors. Then, the factor system of urbanization group conflict is proposed, based on which we construct the system flow diagrams and the dynamics simulation model of urbanization group conflict. By fitting the different influence factors of urbanization group conflict, we further analyze the actual effect of the influence factors in the group conflict dynamic system. Additionally, we utilize the Vensim PLE software to simulate the proposed model. An empirical example is used to illustrate the effective and practicality of the proposed model. The results show that ： the effects from other factors and the public factor on the urbanization group conflict are weaker than the governmental factor. Lastly, some resolution mechanisms are provided to solve the urbanization group conflict event in China.