区域分异视角下进城居民再迁意愿分析

Analysis on the intentions of continuing migration of the migrated residents

本文利用浙江、河南、四川三省960份已从农村迁移到城镇的居民的入户调查数据,建立二元Logistic回归模型进行验证,分析居民再迁移倾向。研究结果表明:(1)从描述性统计看,69.69%已进城居民不愿再迁,主要是生活原因,而30.31%的居民愿意再迁,主要是经济原因。(2)从三省总样本上看,一是女性较男性有更强的迁移意愿。二是年龄对再次迁移意愿有负向显著影响,年龄越大的进城居民更倾向"安土重迁"。三是家庭类型中三代同堂较单身家庭有更强的迁移意愿,因为养老难、子女教育难。四是手工业工人较村组干部更不愿意迁移,技能优势使其在城里更有保障。五是家庭年总收入对再迁意愿有正向显著影响。六是浙江、四川与河南三地的差异显著,因为三地分属于我国东中西部,社会经济、居民收入和文化观念存在显著差异。(3)从分省比较上看,一是性别、打工年限、家庭类型在浙江省和四川省模型中均有显著影响,但方向相反。二是工作类型在三省都有一定的影响,但存在差异。三是家庭年总收入在河南省不显著,而在四川省和浙江省均是正向显著。四是搬迁到城镇的年数在河南省是正向显著,而在浙江省和四川省是负向显著。五是浙江省和四川省模型都说明对政府越满意,居民越不愿意迁移。基于以上研究结论,本文认为在推进以人为核心的新型城镇化进程中,政府应发挥重要的引导作用,关注已进城居民对经济、生活、教育、社会保障等方面的合理需求,重视不同区域社会经济和文化观念的差异性,健全人口迁移的相关体制,落实各项相关保障政策。

Based o n a survey on 960 residents in Zhejiang, H e n a n and Sichuan provinces w h o have already migrated from rural to urban,this paper uses the binary logic regression model to analyze the intentions of migrating again of these migrants. Based on analysis above,the descriptive statistics reveal that 69. 69O of t h e m are reluctant to m o v e into other places mainly for the livelihood,while 30. 310 of th e m are willing to m o v e again w h e n considering economic reasons. In addition,judgithree provinces,there are six results①Women always possess a stronger willingness to migrate than m e n did. ＂T h e age of these migrates has a significant negative impact on willingness of moving again,and s o m e elder ones prefer to live in these original cities.③ Because of thedifficulties of taking care of t h e a g e d parents’ health and children’s education,the familmore willingness to migrate than the single families.④T h e handicraftsmen do not want to m o v e to other cities since their advantages ofskills could betheguarantee for living,while thevillage cadres really want to.⑤ Thetotal annual i n c o m e o f o n e h o u s e h o l d has asignificant positive effect on the desire to m o v e again. ？ T h e r e are s o m e obvious diferences because they belong to the east,middle and west regions respectively,such as the diferences attitudes. Last but not least,w e can also draw five conclusions in terms of provincial comparison：①can be the significant factors both in Zhejiang and Sichuan’ models,but in the opposite direction.② T h e type of work Zfectprovinces at the same time,but there still are some differences.③Residents in H e n a n aren’t sensitive to the change of the total annualincome of the families,while those in Sichuan and Zhejiang provinces are significantly positive to migrating has a significant positive impact on H e n a n Province,while the opposite to the other provinces.⑤T h e modeSichuan explain the fact that if the residents prefer not to m o v e w h e n they feel m o r e satisfied with the government. This paper argues that the governments should play an important role in guiding in the process of promoting the n e w urbanization which is h u m a n- centered. They should concern about the reasonable needs of the residents w h o have already m o v e d into the city,such as the needs oneconomy, sociality, education,social security and other aspects,as well as pay more attention to the differences on socioeconomic andcultural concepts between different regions. W h a t’s m o r e,w e should formulate innovative migration-related systems and relevant security policies are also important.