中国省际城乡人口流动成因的研究——基于第六次人口普查数据

An Empirical Analysis of the Causes of Inter-provincial Urban-rural Migration in China: Evidence from the 6^(th) Population Census

运用2010年第六次人口普查数据,结合重力模型、推拉理论,以及我国除港澳台外31个省市区中每个省市区对应其余30个省市区的930个样本的实际特征,细化分析在不同的人口迁移模式下,影响我国省际城乡人口流动的共性和特性因素。在省际农村到城市、农村到农村、城市到城市、以及城市到农村四种迁移模式中,农村到城市依然是最主要的迁移模式。实证分析结果显示,在四种不同迁移模式下,经济因素、人口因素、地理因素是影响人口流动的共性因素。其中,迁出省份的人口推力作用在农村迁往城市的模式中表现得最大,迁入省份的人口拉力作用则在城市迁往城市的模式中表现得最大,而人口迁移数量对距离的弹性在农村迁往农村的模式中最高,同时教育差距在除了农村到农村模式之外的其它三种模式中都表现出与人口迁移量显著正相关的关系。

This paper uses the 2010 6th population census data and studies the determinants of inter - provincial population migration. Applying the gravity model and the push - pull theory to pairwise data from 31 mainland provinces, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting the inter -provincial urban -rural population migration. In particular we focus on four migration modes ： rural - to - urban, rural - to - rural, urban - to - urban, ral. Not surprisingly, rural to urban is still the dominant mode of migration. show that economic factors, demographic factors ,geographic factors are the and urban - to - ru- Our empirical results determining factorsthat influence migration. The population push effect of the sending province is the largest in the rural - to - urban migration mode, and the population pull effect of the receiving province is the largest in the urban -to -urban migration mode. Moreover, the elasticity of migration with re- spect to distance is the highest in the rural - to - rural migration mode, and the education gap is significantly and positively correlated with migration except for the rural - to - rural mode.