基于领先指标的核电工程安全风险预警体系研究

Research on Risk Warning of Safety Management for Nuclear Power Construction Based on Leading Indicators

指出了安全风险预警是事故预防管理的最重要措施之一,能够为管理决策提供可靠的信息和指导。为探究核电工程现场安全风险预警体系,通过确立领先指标体系研究技术路线,阐述了其相对于安全事件的前瞻性特点,在参考国家标准的基础上,结合现场实践经验,利用基础数理统计分析方法,构建了基于领先指标的核电工程现场安全风险预警体系。以国核示范项目工程现场为例进行了应用实践,结果表明:该方法的运用可以将安全风险从事后被动管理变事前主动处置,同时该方法亦可对其他后续评价方法给予基础性数据支持。其结果能够很好地满足现场实际管理要求。

As a one of the most important measures for accident prevention management, risk warning of safety management analysis provides reliable information and guidance for management decision. To explore the risk warning system of safety management for nuclear power construction site, this paperanalyzed the forward--looking characteristics of leading indicator with respect to the security event. It established the leading indicators system of risk warning of safety management for nuclear power construction site based on national standards, site practices and basic mathematical statistics method. Due to the application the leading indicators, the risk management can be converted form passive management after incidents to active precautions in advance and basic data was beneficial to other follow--up evaluation methods. Finally, the result of application to state nuclear demonstration project was taken as an example to illustrate the good accordance with the actual requirement.