大型灭蚊行动对2014年广州市登革热疫情的影响

The effect of massive anti-mosquito actions on 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou

以2014年秋季广州市爆发的大规模登革热疫情为例建立数学模型,运用最小二乘法、数值模拟等方法考察大型灭蚊行动对登革热疫情的影响,并将灭蚊行动下的感染病例数与未采取灭蚊行动或提前进行灭蚊行动下的病例数进行对比.结果表明:灭蚊行动对疫情有良好的干预作用,在疫情爆发前采取灭蚊行动,可使累计病例数大幅度减少.

According to the actual data of dengue fever occurred in the autumn of 2014 in Guangzhou, China, mathematical models are established to study the effect of massive anti-mosquito actions on the spreading of dengue fever, with the help of least square method and numerical simulation. By comparing the infected cases without anti-mosquito actions and the cases with earlier actions, the results indicate that massive anti-mosquito actions play a beneficial intervention role to the control of the epidemic. If the anti-mosquito actions have been taken ahead of schedule, there would be significant decline on the number of cases.