领结法及其在油气工程领域的应用

Bowtie methods and their application in oil and gas engineering

领结法是近年风险评价方法中的研究热点,该方法致力于解决数据不足条件下的量化风险计算问题,并实现风险的动态评价,其与油气工程领域风险评价方法的发展目标一致。对领结法的定义、基本构成因素以及分类进行了阐述。分别介绍了直接因果关系图法和故障树-事件树法两类领结法的基本形式和适用条件。指出领结法的优点在于其涵盖了风险管理过程中的所有主体内容。结合目前领结法的3个主要研究方向,对定性、定量及动态领结法的基本理论及其在油气工程领域的应用进行了综述,其中定性领结法仍广泛应用于不具备条件开展定量风险评价的系统,或以风险识别、风险状况交流为目标的安全管理项目;定量领结法主要采用与模糊理论相结合的方法,解决数据不足、数据不具有独立性以及专家知识具有局限性等条件下的量化风险计算问题;动态领结法则采用与贝叶斯网络相结合的方法实现风险评价结果的实时更新。分析结果对油气工程领域风险管理方法的发展与完善提供了支持。

Bowtie methods are very popular in the field of risk assessment in recent years. They are dedicated to the risk quantification and calculation in the cases without sufficient data so as to realize the dynamic risk assessment, which is consistent with the development aim of risk assessment methods in the field of oil and gas engineering. In this paper,bowtie methods were illustrated from the aspects of definition, basic elements and classification. Then, the basic forms and application conditions of two bowtie methods were introduced respectively, i.e., direct cause-effect relationship bowtie and fault tree-event tree bowtie. It is pointed out that bowtie methods are advantageous for covering all the main contents of the risk management process. Based on three main research directions, the basic theories of qualitative, quantitative and dynamic bowtie methods and their application in the field of oil and gas engineering were reviewed. The qualitative bowtie method is still widely used for the systems which are not qualified for quantitative risk analysis, or for the safety management projects which are aimed at risk identification and risk situation communication. The quantitative bowtie method is mainly combined with the fuzzy theory to solve risk quantification and calculation when the data is insufficient or dependent and experts are limited in knowledge. The dynamic bowtie method is mainly combined with the Bayesian network to update risk assessment results in real time. The research results provide support for the development and perfection of risk management methods in the field of oil and gas engineering.