全新世亚洲季风演变

Evolution of the Asian Monsoon during the Holocene

亚洲季风是气候系统的重要组成部分,包括东亚季风和印度季风。全新世以来季风变化历史和机制对预测未来季风变化至关重要,是季风数值模拟重要的边界条件。全新世季风变化主要受太阳辐照强度的控制,在太阳辐照变化总趋势的基础上还存在千年—百年尺度的气候突变,与北大西洋冷事件对应。8.2ka和4.2ka存在比较典型的两个弱季风事件,前者特征是高纬寒冷,后者特征是中低纬干旱。近千年以来的中世纪暖期和小冰期发生在人类活动对气候有明显影响之前,对二者变化机制的理解可以加深目前地球气候变化中是自然因素还是人类活动占主导的认识。全新世季风在整体上受太阳辐照强度变化的控制,千年至百年尺度上的气候突变与太阳活动、北大西洋气候振荡、赤道太平洋地区的SST变化等众多因素有关。季风变化尤其是快速气候变化时期的季风研究是季风气候预测的重点也是难点。全新世东亚夏季风与印度季风的变化在整体趋势上是一致的,千年—百年尺度的变化上存在相位差。而东亚冬季风(EAWM)和东亚夏季风(EASM)之间的相位关系还不明确,需要进一步研究。

Asian Monsoon is an important part of the climate system,including the East Asian Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon.The history of monsoon change and its mechanism since the Holocene are critical to predicting monsoon changes in the future,and are important boundary conditions for numerical simulations of monsoon.Holocene monsoon variation is mainly controlled by solar radiation intensity,and on the basis of the general trend of solar radiation change there are still abrupt changes of climate on millennial-centennial scale,which corresponded to the North Atlantic cold events.8.2ka and 4.2ka events are two typical weak monsoon events,the former is characterized by cold in high latitude,and the latter is characterized by drought in middlelow latitude.The Medieval Warm Period（MWP）and Little Ice Age（LIA）during the last millennium occurred before human activities have obvious impact on climate change,so the changing mechanisms of two events can deepen the understanding of either natural factors or human activities dominating the earth＇s climate change.The general trend of Holocene monsoon is dominated by solar radiation;the climate changes on millennialcentennial scale have relation to solar activity,the North Atlantic oscillations,the equatorial Pacific SSTs,and so on.The study of monsoon change,especially the monsoon during the rapid climate change period is the key to monsoon climate prediction and is also the difficult point.The variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon are consistent in general trend,and the phase displacement exists in the millennial-centennial scale changes.The phase relationship between the East Asian Winter Monsoon（EAWM）and the East Asian Summer Monsoon（EASM）is unclear,requiring further research.