城镇化进程中农民增收的内部分化效应研究

Internal differentiation effect of farmers' income growth in the process of urbanization

基于2001-2015年我国及各省(市、自治区)统计年鉴的相关数据,应用向量自回归模型和面板回归模型,实证研究我国城镇化发展过程中不同收入水平农民的收入增长效应和农民内部收入增长的分化效应。结果显示:我国城镇化与不同收入水平农民收入增长及农民内部收入增长分化之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,对不同收入水平农民收入增长的影响力度由大到小依次为中等收入水平、低收入水平和高收入水平农民;城镇化有助于壮大农村的中等收入群体,但会加剧农民内部收入增长的分化。在此基础上,从大力推进新型城镇化战略、加强对职业农民培训、不断缩小农民内部收入增长分化、加大对中西部地区农民增收的政策支持力度等视角,提出实现农民收入协同增长的对策。

Based on the data of China and Provincial（ municipalities,autonomous regions） Statistical Yearbooks from 2001 to2015,this paper uses the vector autoregressive model and the panel regression model to study the effect of farmers＇ income growth and the differentiation of farmers＇ internal income growth in the process of urbanization development in China. The results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between the growth of farmers＇ income and the differentiation of farmers＇ internal income growth,and the influencing efforts are middle income level,low income level and high income level farmers. Urbanization contributes to the growth of rural middle-income groups,but will aggravate the differentiation of farmers＇ internal income growth. Based on the above results,this paper puts forward some strategies to achieve the synergistic growth of farmers＇ income from the following aspects such as vigorously promoting the new urbanization strategy,strengthening the training of professional farmers,constantly narrowing farmers＇ internal income growth differentiation and increasing the policy supports for the farmers in the central and western regions.