基于系统动力学的兰州“双城”交通对经济发展影响趋势研究

Analysis of Lanzhou “Two Cities” Traffic Accessibility and Economic Development Trend Based on System Dynamics

针对兰州市近期提出的以兰州市主城区为主城,兰州新区为副城的"双城"格局,文章从宏观层面研究了"双城"之间交通对兰州市经济发展影响趋势,在分析社会经济、就业人口、交通等相关要素之间的因果关系的基础上,建立了兰州"双城"之间道路投资对兰州市经济影响趋势的系统动力学模型;广泛收集数据,确定了模型的各子系统参数;利用SPSS软件对生产总值与固定资产投资作了线性分析;对兰州市区域经济发展趋势进行了预测并在预测结果的基础上,进行了政策情景调整仿真。仿真结果表明:增加交通基础设施投资比例,建立兰州新区至兰州主城区之间便捷、大容量的通道,缩短"双城"经济点之间的距离,提高"双城"交通通达性,对第一产业生产值影响较小,但对第三产业生产值和生产总值的促进显著。

According to the ＂ two cities＂ pattern of mainly downtown for major city and new district for vice city came up by Lanzhou city, this article studied the influence on economic development between two cities, of Lanzhou by the on the basis of the traffic on macro-level analysis of society economy, employed population, traffic, we established system dynamics model of the road accessibility＇s impact tendency on the economics of Lanzhou city between two cities, we collect- ed the data extensively, ensured the parameters of each sub- system model, made the in linear analysis of total output val- ue and investment in the fixed assets by using of SPSS. Based on the forecast of regional economic development trend in Lanzhou city, the policy scenario adjust,nent simulation is carried out. Simulation resuh showed that increase traffic in- frastructure investment ratio, establish convenient and high-capacity road between new district and major district in Lanzhou, shorten the distance economic region between two cities, improve the accessibility between two cities has little influence on the production value of the first industry but has a great promotion on the production of the third industry.