动态灰色模型在航空弹药维修器材消耗规律中的应用

The Application of Dynamic Gray Forecast Model on the Consumption Rule of Aviation Ammunition Spares

研究并掌握航空弹药维修器材的消耗规律,对做好航空弹药器材的保障工作有着重要的意义。基于此,研究了动态灰色模型,并成功将其应用于某型航空弹药维修器材的消耗预测。实践及理论证明,动态灰色预测模型由于实时加入系统的最新数据,提高灰区间的白度,预测精度比传统灰色模型高,表明动态灰色模型理论正确,精度合格,能够满足实际应用要求。MATLAB作为辅助工具,使得预测变得简便易行,大大节省了工作量。

Researching and mastering the rule of aviation ammunition spares is meaningful for conducting the logistics support work of aviation ammunition spares. Based on this, dynamic gray forecast model is researched and successfully applied to con- sumption forecast of some aviation ammunition spares. Practice and theory prove that the prediction accuracy of dynamic gray forecast model is higher than that of typical gray model because upgraded data are real-timely added into the system to promote the whiteness of gray region. It indicates that the theory of dynamic gray forecast model correct, its precision is qualified and can meet the need of practical application. MATLAB is used as the assistant tool which makes the prediction more easier and reduces lots of workload.