我国房地产业与宏观经济的周期联动分析——基于HP滤波技术与Grange因果关系检验

The Cycle Linkage of the Realty Business in China and Macro-economy——Based on HP Filtering and Grange Causality Test

在我国市场经济发展的过程中,房地产业一直表现的较为活跃。从近年来的数据中可以看出,房地产业增加值和对宏观经济增长的贡献率在不断增大,这也就意味着,房地产业与宏观经济间的联动将更为密切,房地产业的宏观调控也将显得更为重要。因此,文章运用HP滤波技术与Grange因果关系检验实证分析了房地产业与宏观经济的周期联动关系,并提出了不同时期宏观经济政策的选择建议。

In the process of market economy development m t2hlna, the real estate in- dustry has been very active. The data in recent years tell that the real estate industry has in- creasingly contributed to the macro-economy growth. This means that there is closer linkage between the two and the real estate industry will be more important to the macro-economy. With the approach of HP Filtering and Grange Causality Test,the cycle linkage between the two is tested,based on which some suggestions of macro-economic policies for various peri- ods are proposed.