土地流转、户籍制度改革与中国城市化:理论与模拟

Land Transfer,Reform of Household Registration System and Urbanization in China: Theoretical and Simulation Test

本文试图建立一个统一的理论框架,在考虑到劳动力异质性的基础上分析土地制度、户籍制度和城市化的关系。为此,本文构建一个包含农村和城市两类异质劳动力以及农村和城市两类区域用地的内生城市化模型,引入土地流转和人口迁移的限制,研究土地制度和户籍制度改革对城市化和居民福利的影响。模型理论分析表明:(1)在严格的土地控制和户籍限制下,只有拥有较高人力资本的农村劳动力会迁往城市;(2)无论是允许土地流转还是户籍制度松绑,将有更多农村劳动力迁往城市,城市劳动力产出增加,农村劳动力福利大幅改善,城市劳动力的福利仅有少许下降,城市化率提高。反事实检验发现:允许1单位农村"宅基地"流转置换为0.5单位城市建设用地,则2000年和2011年城市化率比实际值分别提高1个和2.5个百分点;若劳动力摩擦程度整体下降0.3个单位,则2000年城市化率比真实值提高2个百分点,2011年提高3个百分点。本文的政策启示为:土地流转和户籍制度松绑的联合改革能够加快中国城市化进程及促进城市化红利的共享。

The administrative restriction of land supply and circulation and the strict management of urban household registration have restricted the market allocation of population and land elements in China＇s urbanization process. With the rapid growth of the urban economy and the large amount of labor migration, the land system and household registration system must be reformed to adapt to the accelerating urbanifzation process. Based on this background, this paper attempts to establish a theoretical model to study the mechanism and effect of land transfer and household registration system reform on China＇s urbanization. In the literature, special land and household registration systems are considered to be the main causes of urbanization in China （Lu and Wan, 2014; Wen and Xiong, 2014）. Research has examined the relationships between household registration systems, land systems, urban immigrant welfare, household registration, land and urbanization. In general, this research has been limited to comparisons of international experience, case analysis, typical fact summaries and general logical reasoning. There remains no unified theoretical framework based on microcosmic individuals analyzing the linkage between land systems, household registration systems and urbanization. This paper attempts to make up for the lack of research in the urban economic literature, and to construct a theoretical model of endogenous urbanization including two types of heterogeneous individuals in rural and urban areas. This model is based on the Lewis dualistic economic model, based on which we relax our hypotheses about the infinite supply of rural surplus labor and labor homogeneity, taking into account the mutual game mechanism of the political economy interest groups and Lucas＇s human capital externality following immigration human capital accumulation in the city. The model introduces the restriction of land transfer and population migration, and describes the impact of the land and household registration systems on urbanization and resident welfare. Theoretical equilibrium results show the following. First, under strict land control and household registration restrictions, only rural individuals with higher human capital move to cities. Second, allowing for land transfer displacement or relaxing urban household registration has two effects. On the one hand, it moves more labor from rural to urban areas due to increasing land revenue and reduced mobility costs, thereby speeding up the urbanization. On the other hand, it increases individual （both in urban and rural areas） output and significantly improves individual welfare in rural areas, resulting in a slight decline in urban individual welfare. Furthermore, calibration parameters and simulation tests support theoretical conclusions, and counter factual experiments using related urbanization and land data from 2000 to 2012 reveal that allowing a unit ＂homestead＂ to replace 0.5 units of city construction land increased urbanization by 1 percentage point over the actual value in 2000 and 2.5 percentage points over the value in 2011. If the overall degree of labor friction had fallen by 0.3 unit, the urbanization rate would have increased by 2 percentage points in 2000 and 3 percentage points in 2011. This paper has the following main policy implications. It suggests breaking the dual labor market in China, integrating the labor market, further deepening the Chongqing ＂ land＂ system and building a unified national indicator market to achieve the land use rights associated with trans-regional allocation.