基于DPN模型的我国出口拉动增加值时滞模型

Time Lag Model of Value Added in China's Export Based on DPN Model

由于我国加工出口占比较高,学者们提出了区分贸易方式的非竞争型投入产出模型。该模型可以更加准确地测算我国出口对增加值的拉动,但是该模型忽略了出口对增加值拉动的时滞性,这容易产生所有效应都在当年发生的误解。文章基于区分贸易方式的非竞争型投入产出模型构建了各部门出口对增加值拉动的时滞模型。实证结果表明:非加工出口部门的时滞长于加工出口部门的时滞。

In consideration of high percentage of export processing in China＇ s export trade, scholars have presented a non-competitive input-output model differentiating mode of trade. This model is more accurate to measure and calculate how much China＇ s exports boost value added, but it ignores the effects of time lag, which easily brings such a misunderstanding that all effects seem to be happening in the same exporting year. This paper constructs a time lag model on the boost effect of value added from every department＇ s export. The empirical analysis result shows that the time lag of the non-processing departments is longer than that of the processing departments.