名义账户制下城镇职工基本养老保险精算分析

Actuarial Analysis on Urban Employees' Basic Pension System Under the Notional Defined Contribution

在我国养老保险向部分积累制转型面临巨额转轨成本、做实个人账户试点严重受挫的背景下,是否选择名义账户制便成为一个重大的理论和现实问题。目前对我国城镇职工基本养老保险实行名义账户制的实证研究较少,而已有的实证研究或者建立在"准名义账户制"基础上,或者没有全面考虑"老人"和"中人",不能真正揭示养老保险模式转向名义账户制后的实际情况。文章在严格按照名义账户制财务平衡机制的要求,既考虑"新人",又考虑"中人"和"老人"的基础上,构建人口和精算模型,并使用六普及其他新数据进行预测,发现名义账户制虽能在精算上保持平衡,但是"老人"、"中人"、"新人"以及不同缴费年限人群的养老金收入替代率存在较大的差异,从而可能使部分人群退休后陷入贫困的境地。

As the transformation from endowment insurance to partially funding system is facing huge transfer costs and the experiment of replenishing individual accounts is frustrated, whether to implement the notional defined contribution system becomes a great theoretical and practical issue. There are very few empirical studies on the notional defined contribution model in China. Those few studies either depend on ＂quasi notional account＂, or not thoroughly consider ＂old pensioner＂ and ＂middle pen- sioner＂, thus unable to reveal the practical situation after the endowment insurance transfer to the notional defined contribution. This paper strictly follows the regulations of the financial balance mechanism of notional defined contribution system, in consideration of not only ＂new pensioner＂, hut also ＂old pensioner＂ and ＂middle pensioner＂, and constructs a population and actuarial model. The paper also makes a prediction by use of the sixth census and other new data, only to find that the notional defined contribution system maintains actuarial balance, but pension＇ s replacement rate is quite different not only among ＂new pensioner＂, ＂old pensioner＂ and ＂middle pensioner＂, hut also among the groups with different contribution years, thereby some groups possibly slip into poverty when retired.