“普遍二孩”政策下我国未来人口结构仿真

The Simulation Study on China's Future Population Structure Under the Policy of “General Two Children” Policy

文章基于系统动力学模型,对未来实施"普遍二孩"政策后我国的人口结构进行仿真研究,获知由于城乡居民生育意愿走低,我国人口结构问题、人口老龄化问题无法通过"普遍二孩"政策予以根本解决。通过比较"单独二孩"和"普遍二孩"政策,凸显后者在应对我国人口问题上一定的优越性,建议"普遍二孩"政策应非我国人口政策的最终落脚点,国家应根据政策实施结果积极进行人口政策的再调整,最终实现人口长期均衡发展。

Based on the system dynamics model, this article conducts a simulation research on the population structure of our country after the implementation of the ＂general two children＂ policy. The simulation results show that due to the lower fertility de- sire of the urban and rural residents, the problems concerning China＇ s population structure and population aging can not be solved through the ＂general two children＂ policy. Through the comparison of the ＂two separate children＂ policy and ＂general two children＂ policy, this paper highlights the latter＇ s superiority in response to China＇s population problems, and proposes that the ＂general two children＂ policy should not be the terminal of China＇s population policy, and that the policy should be readjusted according to the implementation effect of the policy to achieve a long-term balanced development of population.