首都圈人口空间分布格局的形成:集聚力与离散力的“博弈”

The Formation of Spatial Distribution Pattern of Population in China's Capital Circle:“Game”of Agglomeration and Dispersion

当前首都圈人口空间分布总体上呈现以京津为中心向外围递减的格局,本文通过理论和实证分析这一分布格局的形成机制,得到以下结论:当前首都圈人口空间分布格局的形成并非一蹴而就,初始的人口规模和自然地理禀赋是其形成和发展的基础;首都圈"中心—外围"的人口空间分布格局是一系列集聚力和离散力"博弈"和"对抗"的结果,其中就业机会、工资水平以及反映科教实力的高校数量是主要的集聚力,而房价、交通拥堵以及水资源短缺是主要的离散力,水资源短缺的制约作用最大;该分布格局也是各城市处于不同经济发展阶段的反映,中心超大城市已处于工业化发展后期,对高端劳动力和为高端劳动力服务的低端劳动力均有较大的需求,而首都圈外围城市还处于工业化初期或中期阶段,资本密集型产业仍是主导产业,对人口和劳动力的吸纳能力弱。今后除了需要遵循城市化发展本身的规律以外,改善和调节上述导致人口过度集聚的集聚力和离散力及其对比关系,通过政府力量介入,尤其是京津冀一体化战略的大力推进和实施,加快河北省城市化发展的步伐,尽快缩小与北京、天津的区域发展差距将成为合理布局人口空间格局,促进首都圈人口、资源、环境、经济协调发展的必由之路。

The distribution of population in Capital circle of China presented the ＂Core-Periphery＂ pattern, which is that the population density declines from the center Beijing and Tianjin to the periphery. Based on the theoretical explanation and empirical test, we obtain the following conclusions ： the formation of population spatial distribution in Capital circle is not a one-touch, the initial population size and natural geographical endowment are the basis of its formation and development. The ＂Core-Periphery＂ spatial distribution pattern of the population in the metropolitan area is the result of ＂game＂ and ＂confrontation＂ between a series of agglomeration and dispersion, in which the employment opportunities, wage levels and the number of colleges and universities that reflecting the strength of science and education are the main agglomeration, while house prices, traffic congestion and water shortages are the major discrete forces, and the water re- source shortage has the most restrictive effect. The distribution pattern is also reflected the different stages of economic development of the cities, the central mega-cities have been in the late stage of industrialization, so they have greater demand of high-end labor force and low-end labor serving for high-end labor force, while for the metropolitan outer cities, intensive industry is still the dominant industry, the ability to absorb the population and labor force is weak. In the future, in addition to following the laws of urbanization development, to improve and regulate above-mentioned agglomeration and discrete forces that lead to excessive concentration of population and their contrastive relationships, through the involvement of govern- ment forces, especially to advance and implement the strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, to ac- celerate the pace of urbanization in Hebei province, thereby narrow the regional development gaps among Beijing-Tianjin and Hebei province as soon as possible, which will become the way to promote a reasonable formation of the population space pattern and the coordinated development of population, resources, envi- ronment and economy in Capital circle area.