基于系统动力学(SD)的民航可持续安全发展决策研究

On the maintenance of civil aviation sustainable safety and a proposal for decision-making based on the system dynamics (SD)

为了解决民航行业保障能力与发展需求之间的矛盾所带来的安全问题,在对民航行业进行系统分析的基础上,利用系统动力学方法建立了民航可持续安全发展决策流图。通过专家访谈和文献分析法构建了3种政策场景。利用Vensim软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:在保障能力不变的条件下,2015年将航班审批率降低0.3,可实现行业的安全目标,但航班量在2015—2025年发展十分缓慢;在发展水平不变的条件下,2015年将保障能力提高0.3,可在2021年实现行业的安全目标;在可持续发展的策略下,在2015—2018年将航班审批率降低0.3、2018年之后将航班审批率提高0.4,在2015年将保障能力提高0.2,可实现我国民航行业的可持续安全发展。

To cope up with the safety challenge brought about by the contradictory situation between the necessary support capability and measures for the civil aviation and its fast development demands,the paper would like to present a decision-making flow chart of the sustainable safety development program for the civil aviation in China via the system dynamics,which may include the following two aspects. One is the systematic analysis of the sustainable power of the civil aviation,the airport capacity as well as the dynamic relationship among the pilots,whereas the other is to analyze the air traffic controllers,the air-flights with the other components of the system archetype known as the Growth and the Underinvestment of the airport. The model has been verified to be effective in the validity check through the repetitive simulated method,for which we have designed a three policy-involving scenario of simulations through expert interview and literature analysis. The said three policy scenarios of simulations can be illustrated as follows： in scenario 1,it is necessary to maintain the supporting power at a constant level and reduce the development level. In scenario 2,it is necessary to maintain the development speed and the level at a constant ground while heightening the improvement of the supporting power. In scenario 3,it is also of great significance to combine scenario 1 with scenario 2 to set up a short-term and long-term sustainable development strategy.What is more,the development model has also been simulated via the software of Vensim,so as to demonstrate that,the safety objective should be able to be realized on the condition that the approval rate of the flights should be reduced by 0. 3 % in 2015 with the supporting ability kept at the original level,though the increase of flight sum total volume should be slowed down during the period between 2015 and 2025. And,if the supporting power can be increased by 0. 3 in 2015 with the constant development level,the safety objective should have been achieved in 2021. As to the sustainable development strategy,if the approval rate of flights decreases by 0. 3 from 2015 to 2018,and then the goal will have increased by 0. 4 after 2018 with the supporting ability increased by 0. 2 in 2015,the sustainable safety development goal of the civil aviation in China shall be realized. What＇s more,it can be seen that this model we have developed can be expected to get used as a reference for the government departments in charge of the civil aviation to develop different sustainable safety development strategies.