基于农户行为的浙江农村宅基地流转判别模型构建研究

THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE DISCRIMINATION MODEL OF THE ZHEJIANG RURAL HOMESTEAD TRANSFER BASED ON FARMER'S BEHAVIOR DECISION-MAKING

[目的]探讨现阶段如何引导政府科学管理宅基地和农户合理利用宅基地,建立基于农户及其经济行为的宅基地管制调控机制。[方法]采用理论推理和实证分析相结合的方法对农村宅基地管制中农户和政府的决策模式进行分析,对浙江省朱庙村等20个村庄进行问卷调查,以判别分析模型为基础,运用数学建模、调查问卷和数据模拟分析等方法构建较为完善的农村宅基地流转判别模型,并投入实际运用验证。依据影响因素和模型分析结果,从取得、流转、退出等3个方面构建宅基地管制框架。[结果]现行管理制度下宅基地流转的资金补偿、家庭人口数、宅基地面积、闲置宅基地面积大小等4个因素对农户的宅基地流转意愿的判别影响不太显著,年纯收入、受教育年限、年龄及宅基地升值预期等4个因素对农户的宅基地流转意愿的判别影响不太显著;将农户流转意愿判别模型投入实际运用验证,发现模型的判别效果良好。[结论]影响农户是否愿意将宅基地流转出去的主要因素有资金补偿、家庭人口、宅基地面积、闲置宅基地面积。

This paper analyzed the farmers and government＇ s decision model in the rural homestead control by combining theoretical and empirical analysis. Based on the questionnaire survey on 20 villages,using the discriminate analysis model and mathematical modeling,this paper explored how to guide government manage homestead scientifically and farmers use homestead reasonably,and set up the homestead control regulatory mechanism based on farmers＇ economic behavior. The results showed that the current land system under the land transfer fund compensation,family idle land area,land area,and populationwere the important factors that affected farmers land circulation behavior decision. And then it tested thediscriminate model against into the practical application,which showed the model was effective. Finally,it put forward some suggestions,such as improving the system of land property right system,standardizing the acquisition of housing land use right,and perfecting the land circulation system of the implementation,etc.