极端气候对中国粮食产量影响的定量分析

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECTS OF EXTREME CLIMATE ON GAIN PRODUCTION IN CHINA

[目的]利用粮食生产与天气数据估算极端天气对中国粮食生产的影响,以期对我国的粮食安全有所贡献。[方法]选取中国31个省市2002~2012年面板数据,采用固定效应自相关异方差模型(FE+AR(1)+Hetero)计算高温干旱、洪涝、低温严寒等极端天气对中国粮食生产的影响。[结果](1)粮食播种面积、农村用电量、化肥施用量是农业增产的主要因素。粮食播种面积、农村用电量、化肥施用量增加1个百分点,粮食产量分别增加0.97、0.06和0.18个百分点,2002~2012年三者对粮食增产的贡献分别为23.55%、31.21%和21.45%;(2)农作物成灾面积增加1%,粮食产出减少0.04%,2002~2012年农作物成灾面积减少57.75%,对粮食产出增加的贡献为7.97%;(3)在控制农业机械总动力、化肥、农药、农村用电量、农作物成灾面积后,极端高温干旱天气对粮食生产有显著的负面影响,粮食损失比例为1.98%,洪涝、低温严寒影响不显著。[结论]2002~2012年间全国各省市极端高温干旱事件共计93起,频率约为0.27,造成粮食生产额外平均损失比例约为0.53%。

The extreme climate is an important issue in china＇s grain production and social development. As global warming,many parts of China encountered the extreme climate such as high temperature,draught and flood. The extreme climate may also shape remarkable effect on agricultural farming and consequently food safety. As a result,it is necessary to investigate the effects of extreme climate on the grain production. This paper used the fixed effect with serial correlation model to estimate the effect of extreme climate on the agricultural production with province panel data in 2002 ~ 2012. The empirical results showed that：（ 1） the grain acreage,rural electricity and fertilizer application rate were the main factors for the gain production. If they increased by 1 percent,the gain production would increase by 0. 97,0. 06 and 0. 18 percent,respectively. In 2002 - 2012,the contributions of the three factors to grain production growth were 3. 55,31. 2,and 21. 45 percent,respectively;（ 2） If the crop disaster area increasedby 1 percent,the gain production woulddecrease by 0. 04 percent. In 2002 ~ 2012,the crop disaster area decreases by 57. 75 percent and its contribution on gain production growth was 7. 97 percent;（ 3） After the control of the total influence of agricultural machinery,fertilizers,pesticides and rural electricity,the high temperature and drought events reduced1. 98 percent gain production,while the influence of flood or low temperature weather was not significant. In 2002 ~ 2012,the number of the high temperature and drought events was 93,and the frequency was 27 percent. As a result,the loss of the production was 0. 53 percent. To ensure the food security in future,this paper suggested that the government should increase the infrastructure investment,hold the red line of arable land,and improve the anti-risk ability of agriculture.