土地流转的人工社会模型

Artificial Society Model of Land Transfer

针对农村土地流转统计分析无法体现土地流转中社会关系的复杂性和个体行为的随机性,提出了建立人工社会模型研究农村土地流转变化趋势.该模型结合制度分析、发展框架(IAD)与基于制度分析的主体模型系统(MAIA),形式化与土地流转有关的主要社会制度与规则,将土地流转主体(Agent)划分为农民主体与农户主体,并抽象出农户主体属性与行为,农民主体在不同角色下的属性与行为以及在角色之间的转换规则.通过模型计算可以得到土地流转、土地利用情况,不同年度农村人口结构、劳动力流动变化结果.结果分析表明,该模型能较好地反映个体行为与社会关系对农村土地流转的影响,可为研究土地流转政策提供合理的依据.

Statistic analysis cannot depict the complexity of social relations and the randomness of individual behavior in farmland transfer, therefore, an artificial society calculation model was established. According to system analysis, IAD frame and MAIA structure and social institution and rule, the attributes and behaviors of farmer and family, and the behaviors of different roles of farmer were defined. The state of land transfer, land waste, rural population structure and labor flow can be obtained by model calculation. The model can show the influence of individual behavior and social relations on rural land transfer, thus provide rational policy foundation for it.