我国粮食种植面积影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Grain Planting Area in China

分品种对影响粮食种植面积的众多因素进行相关性分析,建立粮食种植面积影响因素的指标体系(其中包括粮食品种、城乡收入比、进出口差额、复种指数、最低价收购价政策等指标).就稻谷和小麦两个主要粮食品种,用多元线性回归分析法建立我国粮食种植面积的影响因素模型.使用残差分析验证所建模型的合理性,F检验表明所建立的模型具有显著性.根据模型可知,最低价收购政策的实施及城乡收入差距对粮食的种植面积起着至关重要的作用,因此,可通过缩小城乡收入差距及实施更贴合我国实际的最低价收购政策来扩大粮食的种植面积,从而增加粮食产量.

Correlation analysis on factors affecting grain planting area was made to establish the evaluation index system including： grain varieties, urban-rural income ratio, balance of imports and exports, acquisition of multiple cropping index and lowest price policy. By using the method of multiple linear regression analysis on rice and wheat, the influencing factors＇ model of grain planting area in China was established. Residual error analysis showed the rationality of the model while F test the significance. It is concluded that the implementation of the minimum purchase price policy and the income gap between urban and rural areas have a vital role in the growing area of grain. By reducing the income gap between urban and rural areas and implementing a most effective low-cost acquisition pohcy, the area of grain planting can be expanded, so as to increase grain output.