创新效率对高技术产业出口复杂度的非线性影响

The Nonlinear Effects of Innovation Efficiency on Export Sophistication of High-tech Industry: Based on Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

本文利用2002-2014年中国省际面板数据,将高技术产品加工贸易进口额滞后一期处理,对现有出口复杂度模型进行修正,测算了行业层面与省级层面的高技术产业出口复杂度。在此基础上分别利用工具变量2SLS法与面板平滑转换回归模型实证分析创新效率与高技术产业出口复杂度之间的关系。结果表明:修正的模型消除了加工贸易成分的进口额大于同时期贸易总出口额的现象;利用工具变量消除内生性以后创新效率对出口复杂度的提升效应明显提高;在PSTR模型中贸易开放度作为转换变量时,创新效率影响高技术产业出口复杂度的程度显著高于金融发展水平作为转换变量时的结果。

In this paper, the existing sophistication model is modified to mea- sure export sophistication of high-tech industry in industry and province level by adding lagged processing trade imports on basis of provincial panel data from 2002 to 2014. In addition, the method of 2SLS and panel smooth transition re- gression model are employed to analyze empirically relationship between innova- tion efficiency and export sophistication of high-tech industry. The findings are： （I） the modified exports sophistication model eliminate the phenomenon that the amount of processing trade importsis more than total exports in the same period; （2） after controlling the endogeneity problem with instrument variables, effect ofinnovation efficiency on the export complexity of high-tech industry is obvious- ly improved. In the PSTR model, takingtrade openness as conversion variable in- stead of financial development level, innovation efficiency has more effect on ex- port sophistication of high-tech industry.