特朗普“百日新政”的外交态势

Trump's Foreign Policy Posture of His First Hundred Days in Office

评价特朗普"百日新政"的外交表现,离不开对其前任外交遗产的评价。美国社会舆论对奥巴马外交的评价毁誉参半,折射出对美国外交发展方向的深层思考。这是特朗普外交不可忽视的民情民意,约束其欲在外交上彻底推翻前任的冲动。从第一个100天的外交新政看,特朗普确立了外交服务于国内议程的宗旨,塑造了贸易与安全两大外交议题,继续以中东、欧洲、亚太三大地缘板块为战略抓手,体现出一个"学习曲线"的进程。随着特朗普外交与安全班子内部对于决策影响力的争夺日益浮现,预计今后决策可能趋于自律和谨慎,但不排除局部战略冒进的可能。中美关系将迎来一个艰难的磨合期,摩擦与合作、挑战与机遇并存。

To evaluate Trump's diplomatic performance in his first hundred days in office cannot go without the evaluation of the diplomatic legacy left over from his predecessor. Currently, the appraisal of Obama's foreign policy by the public opinion suffered mixed fortunes, reflecting deep considerations of the US diplomatic orientation, which cannot be neglect by Trump and will constrain his impulse to completely overthrow his predecessor's foreign policy. From the new foreign policy of his first hundred days in office, Trump has established the purpose that foreign policy should serve the domestic agenda, reshaped the trade and security agendas, and continued with the Middle East, Europe and Asia-Pacific as geostrategic grips, which has shown the process of his 'learning curve'. With the contention for decision influence within Trump's diplomatic and security team emerging, it is expected that his diplomatic decision in the future might generally tend to be self-restrained and prudent, but the possibility of partially aggressive strategies cannot be excluded. The China-US relationship is entering a more difficult run-in period, with friction and cooperation as well as challenges and opportunities co-existing.