2014-2016年北京市平谷区流感监测及预警分析

The analysis of influenza surveillance and early warning in Pinggu district, Beijing, during 2014-2016

目的分析北京市平谷区2014-2016年流感样病例流行病学特点及流感病原学变化规律，为平谷区做好流感的防控措施调整提供科学依据。方法用描述流行病学方法对平谷区2014年8月-2016年12月流感样病例和病原学监测结果进行流行病学分析，利用累计和法对数据进行预警分析。结果2014年8月-2016年12月平谷区19家监测点共报告流感样病例8171例，占门急诊总数0．25％。病原学监测共采集1630份咽拭子标本，PCR检出阳性标本235件，阳性率14．42％。结论流感具有季节性，应加强流感监测，以便及时预警。可以利用累计和法对流感高峰进行预警。

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of influenza-like illness and pathogenic variation in Pinggu district during 2014-2016, and to provide scientific basis for influenza prevention and control. Methods Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyze the epidemic characteristics of influenza-like illness and the results of pathogen surveillance. The method of cumulative sum was used for early warning analysis in Pinggu District from August 2014 to December 2016. Results From August 2014 to December 2016, a total of 8 171 influenza-like cases were reported from 19 sentinel hospitals, accounting for 0.25% of the total outpatient and emergency visits. In the pathogen surveillance, 1 630 swab specimens were collected, and 235 of the specimens were PCR positive. The positive rate was 14.42%. Conclusions Seasonal influenza surveillance should be strengthened to play a role in early warning and preparedness for influenza pandemic. The cumulative sum could be used as an indication of the peak time of influenza epidemic.