2010-2015年福建省戊型肝炎空间聚集性及变化规律研究

Spatial clustering and changing of hepatitis E in Fujian province,2010-2015

目的探索福建省戊型肝炎(戊肝)发病的空间聚集性、聚集区域及其变化趋势,为制定防控策略提供依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统获取福建省2010-2015年戊肝监测资料,用SAS 9.2软件进行频数计算等统计分析,用ArcG IS 10.2软件对各县(区)发病率进行空间自相关分析。结果 2010-2015年福建省戊肝报告发病率介于2.34/10万~3.36/10万之间,年均发病率为2.85/10万。2010-2015年全局Moran's I依次为0.357、0.410、0.329、0.498、0.216和0.124,均P<0.05。局部空间自相关分析,2010-2015年各年戊肝发病分别有8、8、6、11、8和9个热点区域,其中90.00%(45/50)的热点区域在三明市所辖县(区);83.33%(10/12)的三明市所辖县(区)在2010-2015年间成为热点区域。热点区域戊肝的发病水平、发病季节性、城乡分布和高发人群等特征与非热点区域间存在明显差异。结论福建省戊肝发病存在空间聚集性,并具有一定程度的集中性、连续性和扩散趋势。三明市是防控的重点区域,应进一步深入调研其空间聚集的影响因素。

Objective To explore the spatial clustering, specific clustering areas and changing of clustering areas of hepatitis E in Fujian province, and provide evidence for hepatitis E prevention and control. Methods The surveillance data of hepatitis E during 2010 - 2015 in Fujian province were obtained from the national disease reporting information system and analyzed with SAS 9. 2. The spatial autocorrelation analysis of hepatitis E incidence at county/district levels was performed with ArcGIS 10. 2. Results The reported incidence of hepatitis E in Fujian ranged from 2. 34/100 000 to 3.36/100 000 during 2010 - 2015, with the annual average of 2.85/100 000. The global Moran＇s I values were 0. 357, 0. 410, 0. 329, 0. 498, 0. 216, 0. 124 respectively （P 〈0. 05）. The local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that there were 8, 8, 6, 11, 8 and 9 hot areas with high incidence of hepatitis E during this period respectively. Most hot areas were the counties or districts of Sanming （90. 00%, 45/50）. Most of the counties or districts of Sanming had become the hot areas with high incidence of hepatitis E during this period （83.33%, 10/12）. The epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis E had obvious differences between hot areas and non-hot areas, such as the incidence level, seasonality, rural and urban distributions and population with high incidence. Conclusion The spatial clustering of hepatitis E was observed in Fujian with a certain degree of concentration, continuity and diffusion trend. The hepatitis E control and prevention measures should be strengthened in Sanming and the influencing factors of the spatial clustering should be further investigated.