基于协整方法的中国能源消费量影响因素分析

An Analysis of Factors Affecting China's Energy Consumption Based on Co-integration

本文选取人口、GDP、产业结构、城镇化率等为变量,采用中国1980—2015年数据和协整分析方法,研究了中国一次能源消费量的影响因素。结果表明,人口、GDP、产业结构对能源消费有正向影响,其中人口的影响最大;城镇化对能源消费有负向影响,城镇化率每提高1%,则能源消费相应降低约0.87%。结合实证分析,本文提出了通过提高技术效率、优化产业结构和提升城镇化质量等措施,可以有效控制国家能源消费总量。

This study selects population, GDP, industrial structure, urbanization rate as variables to analyze the impact factors on the energy consumption during 1980-2015 period by using co-integration method. The results show that population, GDP, industrial structure all promote the energy consumption, among them the population is the most prominent factor, GDP has a smaller positive effect than population and industrial structure, and urbanization could reduce energy consumption. Finally, some of policies such as improving energy using efficiency, optimizing industrial structure and promoting the process of urbanization in a high-level are proposed to reduce energy consumption.