江苏省综合医院人均医疗费用预测分析

Analysis on the prediction of per capita medical expenses of general hospitals in Jiangsu Province

目的根据2004~2015年江苏省综合医院人均医疗费用建立模型,预测2016~2020年江苏省综合医院人均医疗费用情况。方法基于GM(1,1)模型,借助Excel和GTMS 3.0,计算预测2016~2020年江苏省综合医院人均医疗费用。结果各模型预测精度较高,拟合效果较好,预测结果显示2016~2020年江苏省综合医院门诊患者人均医疗费用、门诊药费、住院患者人均医疗费用和住院药费将呈现逐年上升的趋势,药占比呈现逐年下降的趋势。结论建议建立长期有效的补偿机制、医疗服务价格动态调整机制和全民健康保险体系。

Objective To establish a model based on the per capita medical expenses of general hospitals in Jiangsu Province from 2004 to 2015, and to forecast it from 2016 to 2020. Methods Per capita medical expenses of general hospitals in Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2020 was calculated and predicted based on GM（1, 1） model, Excel and GTMS 3.0. Results Each model＇s accuracy level of prediction was rather high and fitting effect was qualified. The results indi- cated that the outpatient per capita medical expenses, outpatient drug fee, inpatient per capita medical expenses and inpatient drug fee will show an increasing trend, while the proportion of drug fee in medical expenses will show a de- clining trend from 2016 to 2020. Conclusion This theory suggests establishing the long-term effective compensation mech- anism, the dynamic adjustment mechanism of medical service price and the national health insurance system.