人民币汇率变动对中国OFDI的影响——以对东盟十国投资为例

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate on Chinese OFDI

本文利用面板模型,以中国对东盟各国直接投资为例,研究了自2005年人民币汇率改革以来,人民币汇率变动对中国对外直接投资产生的影响。结果表明:人民币升值有利于OFDI,但是人民币汇率非对称性的波动加大了中国OFDI风险,人民币汇率每波动一个百分点,会导致OFDI减少两个百分点;此外,中国经济实力的上升也促进了中国企业"走出去"。基于此,本文作者认为中国企业应把握好人民币加入SDR所带来的机遇,加快人民币市场化和国际化进程,同时中国还应有效管理汇率预期,并控制人民币汇率的波动程度,这对人民币成为国际货币具有一定的启示和借鉴意义。

Using China＇s direct investment to ASEAN countries as an example, this paper studies the RMB exchange rate change＇s impact to China＇s direct investment with the panel model, since the reform of RMB exchange rate in2005. Results show that appreciation of the RMB is conducive to China＇s OFDI, but with the characteristics of asymmetry, RMB exchange rate＇ s fluctuation increases the risk of China＇ s OFDI. The research indicates the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate by 1% can lead the OFDI reduce by 2%. In addition, the rising economic power of our country promote enterprise ＂Go Global＂. And then this research argues that the Chinese enterprises should grasp the opportunities brought by joining the SDR, our country should manage the expectation of RMB exchange rate effectively and control the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. These research results will have enlightenment and reference significance for the RMB to become International currency.