基于VAR模型的安徽省财政支出与第三产业就业吸纳力的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Financial Expenditure and the Employment Absorptive Capacity of the Third Industry Based on the VAR Model

作为吸收劳动力就业的重要渠道,第三产业的发展离不开政府的支持,而财政支出作为政府一项重要的宏观调控手段,研究其与第三产业就业吸纳力的关系,对安徽省解决人口就业问题具有很强的现实意义。文章选取了1988-2015年安徽省的相关数据,通过建立VAR模型,并运用协整、脉冲响应等分析方法,研究了安徽省财政支出对第三产业就业的动态影响过程。主要得出以下结论:科教文卫类支出、社会保障类支出和经济建设事务性支出对安徽省第三产业就业比重都具有不同程度的正向拉动作用,而维持类支出则对安徽省第三产业就业比重具有长期的负面影响。最后根据得出的研究结论,为提高安徽省第三产业的就业吸纳力提出合理化的政策建议。

As the important channel to absorb labor, the development of the third industry is inseparable from the government＇s support, and fiscal expenditure as an important macro - control means of the government is very important to study the relationship between employment and third industry employment in Anhui Province to solve the problem of population employment. This paper chooses the relevant data of Anhui Province from 1988 to 2015, establishing the VAR model, using the co-integration and impulse response analysis to study the dynamic impact of the fiscal expenditure on the employment of third industry in Anhui Province. We mainly draw the following conclusions： the science-education-culture expenditure, the social security expenditure and the economic expenditure have different degrees of positive effects on the employment capacity of the third industry in Anhui Province, while the maintain expenditure has the long-term negative impact. Finally, based upon the conclusion of the study, we put forward reasonable policy suggestions in order to improve the employment of third industry in Anhui Province.